This is true. But as I recall, and correct me if I am wrong (too many posts to review), you were the first one to bring up a Money Back Guarantee in relationship to a refund and it was in defense of First Scenario. Of course, with the MBG the First Scenario would just be delayed for the term of the MBG. The formula for the refund would be the same.
I can run both scenarios with an MBG in place to illustrate this if you feel its necessary. Since the scenario is on a previous page I reproduce it here for convenience:
Consider this scenario:
VPS Monthly - $25.00/mo
VPS Annual - $20.00/mo
For the annual subscription your first annual payment would be $240.00 -- a $60.00/yr savings over the monthly subscription.
For the sake of simplicity let's say there is no money-back guarantee
Now let's say you cancel, for whatever reason(s), after 2 months. If I understand your concerns correctly you fear your host would keep the entire $240.00 while you received only 2 months of hosting. That's an average of $120.00/month for a $25.00/mo VPS. I don't blame you for avoiding annual plans!
Now let's change the scenario a bit. Let's say that the host has a refund policy such as the one I've been advocating (and adopted) here in this thread
You pay your $240.00 and two months later you cancel (for whatever reason). How is the refund determined now? By cancelling early you've gone from an annual subscription to a monthly subscription. Thus your refund would be based on the monthly price ($25.00/mo). Thus, after two months, your refund would be $240.00 - $50.00 = $190.00. The end result is as if you never signed up for the annual plan and chose the monthly plan instead.