Alibaba shares climbed 12% on July 2, 2026, after the company put an ugly, years-long legal problem behind it: a $600 million settlement with the US Department of Justice.
The case centered on roughly 80,000 illegal transactions that ran through Alibaba.com and its US payment processor, AUS Merchant Services, between 2016 and 2024. Federal prosecutors said those transactions, totaling more than $200 million in merchandise value, covered illegal pharmaceuticals, counterfeiting equipment, and controlled chemicals, and that Alibaba failed to detect and remove them, putting the company in violation of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetics Act.
Under the non-prosecution agreement announced July 1, Alibaba agreed to forfeit $200 million and pay a separate $125 million criminal penalty, while AUS agreed to pay $85 million in penalties and forfeit another $190 million. It’s a steep bill, but for investors, the relief came less from the dollar amount and more from finally knowing the number. Years of legal uncertainty had been quietly weighing on the stock, and removing that overhang let traders shift their attention back to how the actual business is performing.
That business, increasingly, means cloud computing. Alibaba Cloud grew 38% year over year in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, bringing in $6.04 billion in revenue, with AI-related products now accounting for 30% of external cloud sales. Morgan Stanley named Alibaba a “top pick” among Chinese tech companies and called it a “global AI winner,” predicting cloud revenue growth will accelerate even further, to 42% in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and 45% for the full year.
Morgan Stanley’s confidence extends beyond just Alibaba. The firm expects China’s AI cloud market to grow at a 72% compound annual rate over the next five years, and it views Alibaba as the company best positioned to capture that growth. Alibaba itself set the bar high back in March 2026, announcing a target of $100 billion in revenue for its cloud intelligence division within five years, more than four times what that division brings in today.
For now, the legal cloud has lifted, and the actual cloud business is what investors are betting on next.
