We've had our own experience with the disavow tool and what John Mueller had to say about it. We've experienced a lot of negative backlinking towards our website. At first, we had no idea what was going on. We were monitoring the keywords, but not the backlinks/anchor text. When all of a sudden everything dropped. We tried searching for penalties, any core updates in google or something that might have triggered it. Nothing. This went on for around 2 months. Until we checked the actual backlinks. There were over 10k of negative backlinks indexed by google. We were ranking better for "darknet shop" than for the keywords we were previously top 5.
We disavowed the backlinks and a few weeks later all was good.
From our experience (and we can't say this is generally true), the disavow tool does have an impact on SEO. Also, google's AI isn't that effective when trying to figure out which link is SPAM and which is not.
If you're going to read about negative SEO, there are a lot of articles where it states it has no effect whatsoever because the links are being posted on websites that are not indexed. We found this to not be completely true. We experienced it ourselves. So, from time to tine, it might be good to audit your website.