As geopolitical tensions rise and digital sovereignty moves from niche concern to boardroom priority, many in Europe are questioning just how realistic it is to break free from American cloud giants. But despite the rhetoric, analysts agree: the path to independence is long, winding, and full of hard stops.
A draft from the European Commission’s upcoming Digital Strategy hints at a quiet concession—that full decoupling from hyperscalers like AWS, Microsoft, and Google may be out of reach. Industry experts express no surprise. These three providers control over 70% of Europe’s cloud market. Their mature platforms, deep service catalogs, and massive infrastructure make them nearly irreplaceable, particularly for multinational companies.
IDC’s Andrew Buss points out that even if Europe started today, it could take two decades to build enough datacenter capacity just to meet current demand. Skills shortages, egress fees, and deeply embedded architectures only thicken the fog. Analyst Steve Brazier noted that moving off the big clouds requires more than just a tech lift. “It’s cultural, logistical, and operational.”
Some companies are quietly adopting dual-sourcing strategies—combining US and EU suppliers—but even these efforts face scale and functionality constraints. Gartner’s Joe Rogus warns that giving up hyperscalers means compromising on vital characteristics. Rather, he recommends aligning sovereignty ambitions with cloud-native architectures fueled by global suppliers under local governance.
Eventually, the future of the cloud in Europe might not be through complete decoupling, but through wiser entanglement—trading off sovereignty, control, and pragmatism in a world where technological autonomy is an expensive proposition.
