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As COBOL coders retire, AWS eyes mainframe exodus before it’s too late

In a quiet but urgent shift, some of the world’s most critical systems—many written in COBOL half a century ago—are approaching a cliff edge. Banks, insurance giants, and government agencies still rely on these aging mainframes. The problem? The people who know how to keep them alive are retiring fast, and replacements are not exactly lining up.

To address this growing risk, AWS has introduced “Transform for Mainframe,” a platform now live in Northern Virginia and Frankfurt. But this is not about cloud hype. It’s a response to a looming crisis: the slow erosion of knowledge holding up systems that move money, verify identities, and power critical infrastructure.

Rather than ripping everything out, the platform takes a surgical approach. It helps companies analyze legacy COBOL and PL/I code, extract embedded business logic, and break apart sprawling monolithic systems. The goal is simple: make decades-old software readable, testable, and eventually migratable into cloud-native formats like Java, without depending on a shrinking pool of specialists.

Still, migration is not just technical—it’s cultural. Mainframes are known for reliability. In finance especially, these systems ensure that every transaction happens exactly once, without fail. Modern computing can scale faster, but rarely offers the same transactional precision. That’s why the process includes simulation tools that replicate how old systems behave under stress, so companies don’t risk real-world failures during the switch.

Even IBM continues to fiercely guard its place in the mainframe world, underscoring how deeply embedded this legacy remains. Yet as hardware ages and COBOL knowledge fades, doing nothing may no longer be an option.

AWS isn’t asking the world to abandon mainframes overnight. But it is betting that the final days of the COBOL generation will force organizations to rethink how they future-proof their digital backbones—before those backbones start to fail silently.

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